October 2009 V.P. Report

Mayor’s Race Update

With election day literally right around the corner, the only people that are willing to voice an opinion on who is going to win the mayor’s race are the candidates themselves.  Even the political talking-heads that make a living studying every socio-economic aspect of the voting public are not venturing a guess on this one, it’s just too unpredictable.  The reason why you ask?  Because the top three candidates in the race are all democrats that for the most part share similar positions on many of the issues, and there is no legitimate republican candidate to challenge them.  Sure Dan Morales is supposed to be the “Republican” in this race, but he hasn’t been able to raise any money, he has little if any name recognition, he is not a great public speaker, his issues are dated, and I’m not even sure if he has the support of the local Republican party.  He’s a nice enough guy and all, but he is out of his league in this race and everyone knows it.  Without a credible republican candidate to challenge the democrat contenders, there is no partisan polarization of the race, no us versus them mentality to rally the base around…it’s just “them”.  This leaves 30% of the voting public with no horse in the mayor’s race and everyone is wondering what will they do? (According to Richard Murray, Director of Surveying with the University of Houston Center for Public Policy, the largest voting blocs in the city are white Republicans and black Democrats and each make up about 30% of the total vote during a typical election.) So will the Republicans stay home and not vote, skip the mayor’s race and vote down ballot or will they vote for one of the Democrats?  Nobody knows, but every candidate is doing their part to reach out to the west side in the hopes of gathering up as many of those votes as they possibly can. 

According to the last study I saw the number of undecided, likely, voters was at about 45%.  That is a huge number of people to be undecided this late in the game.  Unfortunately the recession has had a profound negative impact on the everyday lives of people making them less interested in local politics and more focused on their businesses and the household budgets.  The recession has also greatly reduced the flow of political contributions into the campaign coffers and thereby reduced the candidates ability to get on T.V. and introduce themselves to the voters.  That is, all except Peter Brown who is largely self-funding his campaign, so far to the tune of about $2 million.  It will be interesting to see how much that T.V. coverage will get him at the polls come election night.  And while most people gripe about political campaign ads cluttering up their T.V. viewing time.  It is through these same ads that people learn about the candidates.  No ads equals no public interest.  There is also one more drag on the voters and that is what’s being referred to as Obama burnout.  The presidential campaign went on for such a long time and was so energized that now people are tired of politics and want to get back to their normal lives.  Add all that to the apathy being felt by white conservative voters and you get an election year that no one seems to care about. 

Again we come back to the question of what with the Republicans do come election day?  I think that it is safe to assume that there will not be one big winner of this block of votes.  Some will stay home, some will skip the mayor’s race and some will vote for the other candidates.  Peter Brown has the T.V. ads to reach the masses is they watch, Annise Parker is working the female connection and has made inroads through the Republican women’s groups and Gene Locke has the well healed political connections of Bob Lanier to guide him into the conservative business community.  It will be interesting to see how the numbers play out on election night and later as well to see which parts of town actually turned out.

Disparity Study Update

Nothing has happened since last month’s report.   Everyone is still waiting for City Attorney Arturo Michel to make an announcement on which company he is going to recommend to Council to receive the contract to do the study.  I suspect that announcement will be coming at the end of the month at the Council MWBE Committee meeting.  Until then we are all on hold awaiting a decision.

Management Conference

Finally I would like to thank everybody who attended this year’s management conference in Paradise Valley, Arizona.  Harris County Judge Ed Emmett was our keynote speaker at the event and gave a detailed presentation on the state of the County, road construction and mobility in the future and ways to increase funding to TxDOT.  The resort itself was very nice and very relaxing with a wonderful atmosphere that encouraged everyone to have a good time.  Special thanks goes out to our sponsor Rush Equipment for putting on the Texas v. Texas Tech Tailgate Party on Saturday night.  That was a great event enjoyed by all, some more than others.  Thanks again to everyone that went on this trip, and I hope to see you all in the Cayman’s next year.